Gold Outlook Retrospective: 2015 to the Current

The gold outlook has seen its ups and downs over the previous 5 years.

Ounces of gold have traded inside a broad vary of about $1,050 to $1,350 throughout that point, generally buffeted by financial adjustments and threat components like financial coverage, and at different instances buoyed by by protected haven demand and funding curiosity.

For these excited about gold as a monetary funding — from bodily gold to gold shares to gold exchange-traded funds — it’s price taking a retrospective take a look at the gold outlook. From worth developments to produce and demand, there are a lot of essential components to think about earlier than leaping into the market.

Scroll on to learn what analysts and executives at gold mining corporations predicted for the gold worth and gold market from 2015 to the current, in addition to what the longer term really introduced for the yellow metallic.

Gold outlook 2019 — Market waits for Fed to blink

Beginning worth: US$1,280.40

2019 analyst gold worth forecast — The Fed was one of many main indicators for gold market watchers at first of 2019, with many predicting that the central financial institution would halt or rein in rate of interest hikes for the yr. Analysts additionally pointed to the US greenback’s efficiency, saying a slip may deliver again demand for treasured metals as a protected haven.

2019 CEO gold worth forecast — As a complete execs within the gold mining area anticipated 2018 to be stronger than it was. As 2019 got here to a begin, they have been calling for enhancements available in the market and gold worth; they anticipated that buyers would diversify into gold and put aside buying and selling and funding in scorching sectors like hashish, cryptocurrencies and lithium.

Q1 2019 — The yr kicked off with the Fed asserting plans to pause its financial tightening cycle, a transfer that introduced renewed demand for gold amongst buyers. Nevertheless, regardless of this information on fee hikes the gold worth rose solely 0.85 p.c for the quarter and struggled to remain above US$1,300, with mining analysts saying that its market efficiency was muted by the still-strong US greenback.

Gold outlook 2018 — Fed hikes, US greenback weigh on gold

Beginning worth: US$1,302.50; ending worth: US$1,280.40; share transfer: -1.4 p.c

2018 analyst gold worth forecast — Heading into 2018, consultants have been advising buyers to observe the Fed and geopolitics for clues on gold worth motion. The expectation was for not less than three fee hikes from the central financial institution, and after geopolitical tensions supported the yellow metallic in 2017 market watchers have been anticipating additional impression through the yr.

2018 CEO gold worth forecast — For his or her half, gold mining execs have been usually optimistic on the worth of gold in the beginning of the yr, calling for a powerful yr for the metallic and decreased curiosity in competing sectors resembling hashish and cryptocurrencies. They hoped to see extra liquidity for junior shares.

Q1 2018 — Gold costs moved between about US$1,300 and US$1,350 throughout Q1 2018. Whereas the metallic suffered forward of the Fed’s first fee hike of the yr it ended the interval up round 3 p.c.

Q2 2018 — After gaining in Q1, the gold ounce worth dropped 6 p.c within the second quarter, falling under the crucial US$1,300 stage. The Fed hiked charges for a second time, placing strain on treasured metals and the gold market, whereas buyers shied away from the yellow metallic, afraid that the creating commerce conflict between the US and China would dampen the economies of each nations. Gold’s lowest level for the interval was US$1,247.10 on June 28 and its highest was US$1,352.80 on April 11.

Q3 2018 — Q3 introduced a drop of practically 5 p.c for gold costs. They sank under US$1,200 in mid-August, pushed downward by a powerful US greenback and a 3rd fee hike from the Fed. The yellow metallic traded between about US$1,175 and US$1,250.

This autumn 2018 — The worth of an oz. of gold picked up through the yr’s final quarter, climbing nearly 8 p.c. Though the Fed hiked charges for a fourth time in December, drops in key US indices despatched buyers speeding again into belongings like bodily gold as a protected haven. Gold costs have been solely about $20 in need of $1,300 by the tip of the yr.

Gold outlook 2018 expectations versus actuality — Gold was down about 1.5 p.c on the finish of the fourth quarter, with the overall consensus from business insiders being that it may have finished worse contemplating the headwinds it confronted. These included the Fed’s regular fee hikes (as predicted) and continued disinterest from buyers attributable to a powerful US greenback.

Geopolitics did transfer gold and different treasured metals in 2018, however maybe not as anticipated. As an alternative of producing worth good points like worries about Donald Trump did in 2017, the commerce conflict weighed closely on the gold market.

Gold outlook 2017 — Trump uncertainty boosts gold

Beginning worth: US$1,150.90; ending worth: US$1,302.50; share transfer: +14.59 p.c

2017 analyst gold worth forecast — 2016 introduced uncertainty for gold, silver different treasured metals, largely within the type of Brexit and the election of Trump as president of the US. When 2017 started, analysts have been to see what these main adjustments would deliver for the market — general the consensus was that the worth of gold would transfer larger, however with some ebb and move.

2017 CEO gold worth forecast — As 2017 started, execs within the gold mining area have been additionally ready to see how Trump would possibly impression the worth of an oz. of gold in addition to prospects for gold shares and gold producers. Whereas basically their outlook for gold was optimistic, most pointed to the president as a wildcard with the potential to maneuver gold each up and down.

Q1 2017 — Regardless of a fee hike from the Fed, the gold ounce worth noticed substantial development in Q1, rising nearly 9 p.c on the again of uncertainty and concern about Trump. Its quarterly peak of US$1,257.64 got here in mid-February a couple of month earlier than the Fed made its financial coverage announcement.

Q2 2017 — Gold’s upward momentum got here to a halt in Q2, with the metallic shedding 0.4 p.c for the interval. Although it neared the US$1,300 mark in early June, it didn’t push previous it and shortly started to sink after one other Fed resolution on fee hikes. Whereas Trump and geopolitical points like Brexit remained considerations, they weren’t sufficient to buoy extra funding demand for treasured metals like gold.

Q3 2017 — September was one in every of gold’s worst months of the yr, however the metallic nonetheless loved development over 3 p.c in Q3. Tensions between the US and North Korea performed a job in its uptick, however information that the Fed would increase rates of interest yet one more time for the yr dampened its good points. The very best gold ounce worth of the interval got here on September 7, when it reached US$1,348.60 after weak US jobs knowledge.

This autumn 2017 — This autumn introduced one other acquire of about 3 p.c for the yellow metallic, permitting ounces of gold to finish the yr priced simply above US$1,300. Gold’s upward momentum got here regardless of a 3rd fee hike from the Fed. Jerome Powell was nominated for the Fed chair place by Trump through the interval.

Gold outlook 2017 expectations versus actuality — The worth of an oz. of gold rose practically 15 p.c in 2017, with market uncertainty attributable to Trump main its good points and funding curiosity as anticipated.

Gold outlook 2016 — Gold jumps on Brexit, drops on Trump

Beginning worth: US$1,061; ending worth: US$1,150.90; share transfer: +10.48 p.c

2016 analyst gold worth forecast — After a considerable worth drop for ounces of gold in 2015, mining analysts have been ready for treasured metals like gold to undergo one other beatdown in 2016. US forex power and financial development have been prime threat considerations, and a few main companies have been calling for the metallic to drop under the psychologically essential stage of US$1,000.

Even so, market watchers believed there was room for a future enhance, with potential optimistic funding demand development components being deterioration within the world financial system, fairness market setbacks and a scarcity of fee hikes from the Fed.

2016 CEO gold worth forecast — Regardless of the earlier yr’s lackluster efficiency, many gold mining execs have been anticipating a turnaround for the gold worth outlook in 2016, with one commenting, “It could be troublesome to see a worse marketplace for gold.” Others within the mining business pointed to a discount within the variety of gold corporations (through delistings and M&A exercise) as optimistic. US forex power and financial development have been recognized as attainable threat components.

Gold outlook 2016 expectations versus actuality — Ounces of gold ended the yr greater than 10 p.c larger, although the closing worth was nicely underneath the July peak of US$1,365.40.

Brexit performed a considerable function in shifting funding demand development for the yellow metallic and different treasured metals, with buyers flocking to gold as Britain’s resolution to depart the EU ratcheted up uncertainty and considerations about threat. By the fourth quarter, nonetheless, Trump’s election and a December fee enhance from the Fed had despatched gold all the way down to round US$1,150.

Gold outlook 2015 — Robust US forex dampens gold

Beginning worth: US$1,189.80; ending worth: US$1,061; share transfer: -11.27 p.c

2015 analyst gold worth forecast — At first of 2015, consultants within the mining area have been calling for the gold worth to placed on a weak efficiency within the first half of the yr attributable to fee hike expectations. They then noticed development for ounces of gold within the latter half of the yr with the dissipation of that strain. Normally, the expectation was for 2015 to be quieter than 2014 and particularly 2013, which was a very unhealthy yr.

Gold outlook 2015 expectations versus actuality — Whereas the outlook on the gold ounce worth was pretty optimistic in the beginning of 2015, the yellow metallic didn’t see development and ended up falling over 10 p.c. Though the Fed did increase charges as anticipated, that didn’t occur till December, which meant that the prospect of a rise weighed on funding demand for treasured metals like gold all year long. Additionally weighing on gold prices was a powerful US forex.

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Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, maintain no direct funding curiosity in any firm talked about on this article.

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